Province credits early action for blunting virus

Acting early on COVID‑19 has paid off for the province of New Brunswick, according to Stephane Robichaud, CEO of the New Brunswick Health Council. On May 20 Maine reported 78 more people with confirmed diagnosis of the novel coronavirus, bringing the total to 1,819 since the first case was reported on March 12. On the same day New Brunswick reported no new cases, leaving the total at 120 since the first one reported on March 11. With all having recovered, there are no active cases in the province. There have only been two confirmed cases since April 18.
Maine recorded three new deaths due to COVID‑19 on May 19, bringing the total to 73. New Brunswick has yet to record its first COVID‑19 death. Even adjusting for Maine's larger population, 1,328,361 compared to 747,101, people in New Brunswick might feel like they dodged a bullet -- so far.
"For us, how quickly those decisions were put in place, now with hindsight, we can see that it was very important," Robichaud says. However, "had the population not followed through in abiding by those rules, we would not have the situation we have." He now worries "we feel a bit too safe a bit too early." The New Brunswick Health Council, an arm's-length provincial agency headquartered in Moncton, reports publicly on and engages citizens to improve the healthcare system.
New Brunswick ordered students into isolation on returning from trips over March break, then closed schools and non‑essential services before declaring a state of emergency on March 19. "Next door in Maine, for the overall state, it was a few weeks later, and those are critical times in those early days where you have, yes, people who may have symptoms, but a lot of asymptomatic people walking around," Robichaud says.
Premier Blaine Higgs has publicly acknowledged that Education Minister Dominic Cardy recognized the danger early, but Robichaud gives credit to the premier, provincial Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Jennifer Wylie‑Russell and opposition party leaders -- Liberal Kevin Vickers, Green David Coon and People's Alliance Kris Austin -- who sit on an all‑party cabinet committee on COVID‑19. "Having a very decisive government with a population that would not collaborate, today, if we had a huge problem on our hands, we'd be blaming the population, so if we're not having a problem, I think much credit is also deserved to go to our population, because people were very astute in following those guidelines early on," Robichaud says.
New Brunswick was "very lucky" to keep COVID‑19 out of seniors' residences, Robichaud says. "You know, it would have been just as easy for anyone who had contracted COVID‑19 to have visited a relative in a nursing home or whatnot at that time, not knowing that they were infected." Today, people visiting New Brunswick nursing homes stand outdoors, talking to loved ones through open windows.
The relatively small number of international travellers helped, too, Robichaud says. The numbers in Maine increase "the closer you get to Boston." As of May 18, Cumberland County, including Portland and South Portland, accounted for 863 of Maine's reported COVID‑19 cases, more than half the state total. York County, including Biddeford, Sanford and Saco, accounted for another 302. The state reported only two confirmed cases in Washington County, both recovered, and one in the very rural Piscataquis County. Numbers for Charlotte County are not readily available because New Brunswick reports numbers by health regions not following county lines.
In Nova Scotia, the central health region including Halifax accounted for 895 of the province's reported 1,044 COVID‑19 cases as of May 19. The 2016 census reports Halifax at 403,131 people out of a total provincial population of 923,598.
"If you look at Quebec, it is not Quebec, it is Montreal. It's in the urban areas," Robichaud says. Quebec reported a total of 44,197 cases, 22,317 of them in the Montreal region, up to May 19. The 2016 census counted the Montreal region's population at 4,098,927, about half the provincial total of 8,164,361.
Neither Maine nor New Brunswick has a dominant center such as Halifax or Montreal. The most recent national censuses record 71,889 people in Moncton, New Brunswick's largest city, and 66,417 in Maine's largest, Portland.
New Brunswick's four communities with more than 20,000 people -- Moncton, 71,889; Saint John, 67,575; Fredericton, 58,636; Dieppe, 23,384 -- add up to 221,484 people, about 30% of the provincial total.
In Maine, 10 communities have more than 20,000 people -- Portland, 66,417; Lewiston, 35,944; Bangor, 31,997; South Portland, 25,606; Biddeford, 25,514; Auburn, 23,196; Sanford, 21,183; Brunswick, 20,481; Scarborough, 20,352 -- adding up to 270,690, about 20% of the state total. New Brunswick has about 27 people per square mile; Maine has about 43.
New Brunswick's median age of 45.7 is higher than Maine at 44.6. About 20% of the provincial population is 65 or older, and many people suffer from diabetes, hypertension and other chronic health conditions. "We have a population here that would have been very vulnerable had we not been able to limit the exposure as we did," Robichaud says.
Cardy said in a news conference that New Brunswick is taking a risk by easing restrictions but that the province must restart the economy. Robichaud understands the dilemma. "The quarantines are taking their toll on people's mental health, and mental health and physical health are very closely related," he says.
Sales of alcohol have increased, but Robichaud could not say if people are drinking more or if they stocked up, worried that liquor stores would close. He cautions, "As a coping mechanism, drinking is unhealthy." He welcomes reports of people taking up new hobbies, including increased sales of musical instruments.
Daycares are reopening, the province now allows up to 10 people to attend church services, households can now interact in two‑family "bubbles," and St. Stephen is opening tennis courts.
"We're in this for awhile, at least a year, so we have to maintain a minimum amount of due diligence," Robichaud says. He worries about the reaction if New Brunswick records more cases, especially if COVID‑19 claims its first lives in the province. "There is a possibility there will be none, but we should be prepared for the eventuality that there can be because, just look around us," he says.