Reopening of border a federal decision that may be complex

New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs hopes to greet visitors from Maine this summer, but folks in Lubec and Calais should not line up at the bridges to Campobello Island and St. Stephen just yet.
The provincial "Path to Green" that the premier announced on May 27 to gradually lift COVID 19 restrictions includes a provision to open the border as soon as Canada Day, July 1, to travellers from Maine with no requirement to isolate if they have at least one dose of vaccine, but the details available online include a proviso: "pending federal requirements."
In Canada, control over international borders falls within federal jurisdiction. New Brunswick Southwest federal Member of Parliament John Williamson and Saint Croix provincial Member of the Legislative Assembly Kathy Bockus agree that the national government in Ottawa must approve any plan to ease restrictions at the border.
Higgs says the same thing. "I am optimistic, but it is a federal decision," he responded to a reporter's question about opening the border at a live streamed update on June 7.
Williamson characterized the premier's comments as "aspirational" but said that the federal government in Ottawa will decide when and how to open the border to American visitors. The two national governments have been renewing the border restrictions month by month for more than a year, and Williamson says to pay attention to news from Ottawa and Washington, D.C., towards Monday, June 21, when the current monthly extension expires.
Williamson, a Conservative sitting on the opposition side of the House of Commons, also warns that a federal election this summer, which he fears that Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wants, would delay any decision on lifting border restrictions. "Once an election is triggered, no decisions are made," he says.
Under the provincial Path to Green, New Brunswick has hoops to jump through before asking the federal government to ease border restrictions. Allowing vaccinated residents of Maine to visit comes in the second phase of the Path to Green. As of June 8, the province still fell short of an important milestone for phase one, namely, at least 75% of New Brunswickers 12 and older getting their first vaccination shot.
The government had hoped to pass this mark by June 7, but the total reached only 70.3% by that date, increasing to 70.8% a day later. "Another 28,812 people need to receive their first dose in order to reach the 75% mark, which is necessary in order to begin loosening pandemic restrictions under the province's Path to Green," according to the June 8 news release.
Under phase one, people from Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador and the Avignon and Témiscouata regions of Quebec across from New Brunswick's northern boundary could visit without testing or isolating and certain other restrictions would ease, but not at the Canada/U.S. border.
Both Higgs and Dr. Jennifer Russell, the province's chief medical officer of health, say phase one will not start until three quarters of people 12 and over get that first shot, the number of COVID 19 patients in hospital stays low and all of New Brunswick remains in the yellow phase of the provincial recovery plan.
"We will not settle for good enough. Close might count in horseshoes but not in pandemics," Russell said on May 27, adding that loosening restrictions too soon could trigger a "fourth wave" of COVID 19. "It's not good enough if we have an outbreak and then we lose it at the very end of this COVID-19 pandemic when we have so much to gain for the summer months," the premier said.
To move to phase two on the Path to Green, at least 20% of people 65 and older will need their second shot of vaccine, numbers in hospital must remain low, the entire province must remain yellow and at least 75% of those 12 and older must have their first shots.
In phase two, the "Atlantic bubble" would expand to include Nova Scotia and other restrictions would ease - including on travelers from Maine if Canada's federal government agrees.
Bockus cites information on the provincial government's website that travellers from the United States and outside North America "whose travel has been approved by Canada Border Services Agency must also receive approval to enter New Brunswick." Taken at face value, Maine residents visiting the province might still have to register through the New Brunswick Travel Registration Program and meet other provincial requirements.
"You might want to talk to a constitutional lawyer," Williamson says. It gets down to federal jurisdiction over international borders and provincial jurisdiction over public health allowing provinces, New Brunswick included, to restrict travel from even inside Canada. Williamson agrees that the federal and provincial governments should negotiate this issue.
Higgs and Trudeau both say that provincial and federal leaders have discussed easing border restrictions, but Williamson says an election campaign could delay action by six weeks.
The Liberals won 157 seats in the 2019 federal general election, less than a majority of the total of 338 seats but enough for Trudeau to stay in power at the head of a minority government. The opposition parties, including the Conservatives, could vote non confidence in the government en bloc and force an election, but Williamson calls this unlikely. "This government could continue in place for another two years if it wanted to," he says.
Williamson questions Trudeau's assertions that he does not want an election right now. "I think Prime Minister Trudeau is chomping at the bit to call an election," the Conservative MP says. National polls show the Liberals somewhat ahead, and Williamson suspects that Trudeau feels the numbers will not get better once tough questions arise as the nation moves past the pandemic.
Williamson notes the Parliament has set aside time on Monday, June 15, for final speeches by MPs who do not intend to reoffer, something he calls "unusual." Williamson also says the Liberals have announced rules for naming candidates.
Williamson says an election could come as soon as August, which would seriously crimp plans to ease restrictions on Americans visiting Canada. "These decisions take time," he says. For example, the government would have to decide what to accept as proof of vaccination. These discussions could not happen during an election campaign, Williamson says. "I hope this is settled before we have an election," he says.
Phase three along the Path to Green kicks in when 75% of New Brunswickers 12 and older have their second dose of vaccine. "At this time the province will move to the green level, the mandatory order will end and all restrictions will be lifted," the online material states.
The government says that glorious day could come as soon as August 2 but, first, more people need to get their first dose of vaccine just to reach phase one. There are only 28,812 more to go as of June 8.
The government has posted a photograph of Russell personally giving Higgs his second shot of the AstraZeneca vaccine, part of the campaign to get others to roll up their sleeves and enjoy the coming summer with fewer restrictions. The province has plenty of vaccines and the capacity to deliver them, Higgs and Russell say.
In the meantime, Russell urges New Brunswickers to follow familiar rules, including wearing masks, staying at least two meters apart and washing hands thoroughly and often. Restrictions at the border will remain in place, but Washington County residents should stay tuned.