Ice core research sheds light on climate change

The research of ice core samples from the remote areas of the world as a part of climate change study may feel very far from Downeast Maine. But the ice‑out on the region's lakes this year as some of the earliest ever recorded may be connecting the dots -- so much so that Senator Angus King attended an ice fishing forum at the Lakes Environmental Associate Science Center in Bridgton to underscore the need for action on climate change.
The weather is closely paid attention to Downeast. It sets the standard for whether the snow tires go on or the woollies and down comforters are tucked away in the cedar chest. Despite its ability to wreak havoc very quickly, the weather is a relatively short‑term thing. But the long‑term behavior of weather is what determines climate, a loaded word now that it's associated with change. Lubec‑area native Dominic Winski, a graduate student in ice core research at Dartmouth College, returned Downeast for a presentation at the Lubec Memorial Library on his research and its implications for the town. To a packed community room on the afternoon of March 5, he shared, "As a scientist I'm trying to place these changes in context" through his work. The feeling in the room suggested that there was no better home for contextual placement of such research than right there.
Winski has drilled, tested and studied ice core samples measuring atmospheric concentrations from hundreds of thousands of years ago from locations all around the world. Ice core research has resulted in a continuous chain of growing knowledge about the climate changes that have taken place for almost one million years. "Most of the energy of climate change is in the oceans, not the atmosphere," he explained, because of the capacity of water to expand as it warms.

Local impact
The expanding and acidifying ocean will have an impact on Lubec and similarly sited communities around Passamaquoddy Bay. However, Winski and many other Maine‑based climate researchers project that the coastal impact will not be as dramatic as that in other parts of the nation and world. Data collected from the Eastport weather station shows that between 1892 and 2010: the mean annual temperature has risen 3.5 degrees; extremes of warmth have risen 4.2 degrees; extremes of cold have lessened 8.5 degrees; and precipitation has increased by 25%. He noted that of the major disasters that have occurred in the county, 90% of them were related to heavy precipitation. However, Winski explained that all bets are off if certain catastrophic ice-melt conditions occur.
Underscoring his warning is a report issued by the journal Nature in late March of research on the potential for "runaway" melting in Antarctica that could trigger a three-foot or more rise in ocean levels in 100 years rather that the two-foot rise that is anticipated by 2050.
The Downeast coast is expected to have a sea level rise of between 10 and 15 inches by 2050, about a foot less than the global average. The bigger concern for the Gulf of Maine is the increase in ocean temperature by about 5 degrees and the "large impact" it will have from the "base of the food chain on up" from the acidifying effects on shellfish, said Winski.
However, concerns about the changes climate will have on native species, pests, plant growth cycles and the very human concerns of emergency management, economic development models and municipal concerns of stormwater infiltration of drinking water, wastewater treatment plants, healthcare facilities and schools, and roads and utility networks are being studied by local and state planning organizations from the Washington County Council of Governments (WCCOG) and the University of Maine at Machias (UMM) GIS Service Center and Lab to the University of Maine Margaret Chase Smith Policy Center and the UM Climate Change Institute.
The WCCOG and UMM GIS Service Center and Lab have created climate change vulnerability assessment maps as well as storm-surge scenarios that are town and bay specific. The impact of high-tide storm surges along with high precipitation and wind is the combination that could wreak havoc on the day‑to‑day life of coastal communities like Lubec. In 200 to 500 years, Winski pointed out, it could well be that West Quoddy Head will be an island and much of Lubec will be under water. The same could happen much sooner if catastrophic ice melt occurs.
But in the meantime, Winski suggested to the gathering that a community fully involved in making sure that planning, zoning and economic strategies take into account the changing climate by attempting to shape the protection and use of its resources will face the future in a better position than a community that does not.
For more information about the WCCOG climate vulnerability maps visit <www.wccog.net/regional‑planning.htm>. For more information about studies on the impact of climate change on Maine's flora, fauna and economic models visit <www.climatechange.umaine.edu>. Winski is willing to work with citizens who wish to pursue climate mitigation measures locally. He can be reached at dominic.a.winski.gr@dartmouth.edu.