Progressive Conservatives win majority in legislative assembly

Premier Blaine Higgs took a chance by calling a snap provincial election and won. New Brunswick voters returned his Progressive Conservative (PC) government to power on September 14 with 27 of the 49 seats in the legislative assembly, a clear majority -- unlike what happened in the general election on September 24, 2018, which put him at the head of New Brunswick's first minority government since the 1920s.
The winners include former journalist Kathy Bockus, who beat four other contenders to win in Saint Croix, keeping the seat that the late Greg Thompson won for the PCs in 2018. Attorney General and Justice Minister Andrea Anderson Mason won a second term by beating four others in Fundy The Isles Saint John West. A total of 14 women won seats this time, nine of them PCs.
The PCs won five more seats than they did in 2018. The Liberals dropped by four seats to 17. The People's Alliance (PA) lost one seat, leaving them with two. The Greens hung on to the three seats they won in 2018.
Higgs called the snap election on August 20, stating that negotiations with the opposition parties to avoid a trip to the polls in the middle of the COVID 19 pandemic had collapsed. Parties blamed each other for what they all called an unnecessary election that nobody wanted, but the outcome leaves Higgs and the PCs in control for the next four years to chart New Brunswick's recovery from the pandemic.
Bockus and Saint Croix PA candidate Rod Cumberland started campaigning months ago. Thompson died on September 10, 2019, creating a vacancy in Saint Croix. The PCs, PA, Liberals and Greens nominated candidates, but Higgs held off calling this byelection and another in Shediac Bay Dieppe. COVID 19 forced further delay to the byelections, and the original Liberal and Green candidates in Saint Croix dropped out of the race, forcing their parties to find others to run. Then, Higgs asked Lieutenant Governor Brenda Murphy to dissolve the legislative assembly on August 20 and send voters to the polls across New Brunswick 28 days later.
Anderson Mason, a lawyer in St. George, won an especially convincing victory with 4,740 votes. Liberal candidate Tony Mann came next with 726 votes, followed by Vincent Edgett for the PA with 688, Lois Mitchell for the Greens with 686 and the New Democratic Party's (NDP) Sharon Greenlaw with 291. A total of 7,154 people voted, 63% of the 11,423 eligible voters.
"I did OK," Anderson Mason said in an election night interview at her campaign headquarters in St. George. "My goal, whether or not I've been successful, is to be able to show that you can do politics different, that you can represent different. I think it's incredibly challenging in this day and age, especially with social media, but my goal is, in the next few years, to continue down that same path of being accessible and willing to listen."
Bockus, who lives in the rural Charlotte County community of Leverville, garnered 3,570 votes, a margin of more than 1,000 over Cumberland at 2,546. Green candidate Kim Reeder came next with 1,238 votes. John Gardner, who was nominated to run as a Liberal before party leader Kevin Vickers dropped him because of statements on social media, took only 401 votes. Brad McKinney, representing the NDP, trailed with 147. A total of 7,921 people voted, 66% of the 11,985 eligible.
Bockus, a staffer in Thompson's office who continued as riding assistant after his death, said at her campaign headquarters in St. Stephen on election night that she will continue to work on issues she already had on her plate: the future of the Milltown dam in St. Stephen, economic recovery following the closure of the gypsum mill in McAdam, deer, wharf restoration and climate change in St. Andrews and a ferry to the Canadian mainland for Campobello Island. "I just want people to know that I'm making one promise, and that's to work hard as I can for them," she said.
The voters gave Anderson Mason and Bockus both strong mandates, but some might argue that the people who stayed home on polling day, in fact, won the election. In Fundy The Isles Saint John West, the 4,269 people who did not vote come close to the number of ballots for Anderson Mason, the winner. The 4,064 people who did not vote in Saint Croix total more than the ballots cast for Bockus, the winner. The turnout was down somewhat in both ridings from 2018.
A total of 376,896 people voted across New Brunswick in this provincial election, 66% of the 569,862 eligible, according to Elections New Brunswick, less than one percentage point lower than in 2018. The 192,966 people who did not vote totalled more than the approximately 148,000 votes for the PCs, allowing them to form a majority government.
Bockus believes the pandemic partly explains the somewhat lower voter turnout in Saint Croix. "Our campaign focused on getting people out early. We wanted them to vote safely," she says. "But let's face it, there's a lot of seniors in this riding and a lot of them are still a little bit leery about going out."
"We have a very strong team, and it was called 'get out the vote.' I mean, we made phone calls to known supporters and encouraged them to get out and vote, and they obviously did. I'd like to see more young people, perhaps, engaged in the process. Maybe we're going to see that in the next few years," she says.
Voters responded to the appeal from Elections New Brunswick to "flatten the election curve" by voting early to avoid spreading COVID 19. Paul Harpelle with Elections New Brunswick reports that 133,000 people across the province voted in two days of advance polls, compared to only about 86,000 in 2018. Another 60,000 voted with special ballots cast at polling stations ahead of election day. These numbers add up to more than the number who voted on election day.
The PCs won 55% of the seats with only 39% of the total popular votes for party candidates across the province. The Liberals won about 34% of the seats and about 34% of the total vote. The Greens and the PA could argue that they got shortchanged. The Greens won about 15% of the popular vote but only 6% of the seats. The PA took about 9% of the vote but only 4% of the seats. The nearest thing Americans possibly have to compare to this perennial conundrum of Canadian politics might be the Electoral College, where a presidential candidate can win the popular vote but still lose the election.
Had the seat count reflected the popular vote, Higgs would still head a minority government, which Anderson Mason said she could have handled. "Personally, I wasn't challenged by the minority government. I had good working relationships with people across party lines, and it's my intention to continue that because, what I understand, especially when you look at the vote count, is the province is made up of people across various party lines; and I represent people who have voted for various parties, and I think it's my obligation to listen to and do the best that I can to find a balance," she says.
Higgs said on election night that he hoped to continue inter party cooperation to deal with the pandemic.
Anderson Mason quips when asked about being a woman in politics, "You know, I don't know what it's like to be a man elected." Her family never told her while growing up that her gender was an obstacle, she says. "I wasn't taught that women were disadvantaged. I was taught that if you have a goal, set it and work towards it, you can accomplish it, and I think that's what we did here."
She understands, however, why some women might blanch at politics. "I can tell you that it's not for the faint of heart. One of the things that I find disappointing about this job is the scrutiny, the personal scrutiny, that a person undergoes especially in social media, and I can understand why some people, women in particular, might find it distasteful," Anderson Mason says. "The keyboard warrior," she calls people who post things on social media they would never say to her face.
She represents a diverse district including parts of the city of Saint John, the town of St. George and village of Blacks Harbour, large coastal and back country rural areas and three inhabited islands - Grand Manan, White Head Island and Deer Island. "But there is one common goal, which is building a province where our families can find a future," she says.
If Bockus ever did have plans to retire, they are off now. She started work as a newspaper reporter three days after graduating from high school in her hometown of Hampton, "and I've pretty much worked full-time ever since. I like being busy, so it looks like I'm going to get my wish, huh?" she said on election night.
"I'm very excited about this. It's kind of sinking in now," she said.